It's always exciting when new voters show up. The pundits, rightfully so, start to categorize them in ideological buckets. The Trump Effect, The Obama Wave, The Tea-Party Movement are all examples of this. But what does this all mean in forecasting the next elections? Where do these voters go and how much weight do they hold over the elections to follow?
As a point of reference, we saw in our blog "Voters Who Vote, VOTE!" that almost 80% of the 4V voter voted in all of the next three General Elections and we also saw in our blog "See the new voters, where are they going?" that only 3% of the 4N voter voted in all of the next three General Elections. That's a huge disparity.
In this blog, let's turn this same attention to the 1V Voter who voted for the first time in the most recent general election. In this review, we are looking at Tarrant County 1V Voters who voted only in 2012 and not in 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections.
In all, we identified approximately 122,000 voters in Tarrant County who fall into this voter model. Here is what we see:
In the long run, we see a loss of only 21% not participating in any of the next 3 General Elections. But at the same time only 33% coming back to vote in all 3 of the next General Elections. This type of voter has value but given a campaign's limited resources we must be wise to the approach before sending in major campaign resources. Try to think of the cost of each campaign activity, and if the cost makes sense for your budget, then do it!
For example, if you wanted to send a piece of mail to all 122,000 voters in this category at a cost of $1.00. That's simply $122,000 for this one action. Now, this is obviously a large population, but the same is still true at any level of campaigning, what is the value and what is the expected outcome? If your campaign can justify the cost then go for it. But if you need to narrow your budget and make every dollar spent maximize it affects then understanding the story of your data is the best way to go.
Let Wisdom be your guide!
Out in the open wisdom calls aloud, she raises her voice in the public square