We've decided to narrow the focus of this blog series for the sake of simplicity and ease of discussion. Over the eleven days of early voting, we are going to measure turnout in Tarrant County, looking back and comparing Republican and Democrat daily turnout figures against turnout in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 Primaries. I am very excited to see what story emerges and how we can use the wisdom derived from the story to give our clients strategic insight moving on into November.
Let's start with Republican Turnout for Day 1. There were a total of 6,418 voters. 3,844 In-Person and 2,574 By-Mail. By contrast, there were a total of 6,506 voters in the Democrat Primary. 3,068 In-Person and 3,438 By-Mail. As a percentage of the total vote both Republican and Democrat turnout are neck and neck with Democrats having a slight advantage.
Turning our attention now, to the past 4 Primary, I see a trend where the Democrats have been increasing their share of the total vote in the primary, year after year. I show the Republicans had outvoted Democrats 2.55 to 1 in 2012. This advantage has slipped to 1.19 to 1 in 2018. Now the advantage leans to the Democrats for the first time in this series by 1.01 to 1 in 2020.
Also, worth noting is the % of Total Reg Voters. Republicans had their smallest showing for "Day 1" at 0.56%. With the highest being 0.77% in 2016. Democrats, on the other hand, had their largest at 0.56% with their lowest in 2012 at 0.23%.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few days. Will the Republicans gain their historical advantage or are we still seeing the slow bleed of a purple county to blue? I guess we will find out soon! Please make note we are not predicting outcome here, we are simply looking at what story the numbers tell us.
Contact us if you would like a detailed study of your area or district. We would be glad to help you develop your strategy and understand the complex voter habits you will be facing.
Let Wisdom be your guide and Peace be with you!
John 6:29 NIV - Jesus answered, “The work of God is this: to believe in the one he has sent.”