Congratulations, now that you are in a Primary Runoff what voters do you target? Our goal at CES is to understand the value of every voter associated with your campaign. We have developed a unique way to identify voter cost efficiencies. This unique focus allows our clients to understand the efficiency of their time and dollars spent at the front end of the campaign which allows for sharper, focused strategies and a more efficiently run campaign.
The million-dollar question, who is going to vote in the 2020 Republican Primary Runoff? In order to get the heart of this question, we looked back over the last four primaries and primary runoffs from 2018, 2016, 2014, and 2010. Here is what we see:
The first question we asked, what % of the Primary Runoff voters also voted in the Primary? As you can see from the following chart, an overwhelming majority of Primary Runoff voters also voted in the Primary. We believe this is to be expected, but it is extremely helpful to put real numbers to the expectation. Over the last four Republican Primary Runoff Elections, approximately 90% of the voters voted in the Primary.
Our next goal was to understand how these Primary Runoff voters broke down in their voter models? Interestingly, none of the models were very strong, but some were stronger than others. For example, 4Rs (RRRR) who voted in the primary, returned to vote in the Primary Runoff at a rate of 40% in 2018 and 34% in 2016. By comparison, 1Rs (RNNN) returned at 19% and 16% and, 0Rs (NNNN) first-time voters returned at 16% and 4%.
We also looked and 4Rs (RRRR) who did not vote in the Primary. They voted at a rate of around 6% and 4%. These strong Republican voters did not vote any better than the 0R (NNNN) voters who just voted in the Primary.
So what does all this mean in real numbers?
From our study:
RRRR (4R) had 7,714 voters vote in Rep Prim but only 3,078 returned to vote in the runoff or 40%.
(36% of the total Runoff vote)
RNNN (1R) had 8,580 voters vote in Rep Prim but only 1,589 returned to vote in the runoff or 19%.
(18% of the total Runoff Vote)
NNNN (0R) had 7,064 voters vote in Rep Prim but only 1,111 returned to vote in the runoff or 16%.
(13% of the total Ruoff Vote)
RRRN (3R) had 2,094 voters vote in Rep Prim but only 669 returned to vote in the runoff or 32%.
(8% of the total Runoff Vote)
RRNN (2R) had 2,090 voters vote in Rep Prim but only 578 returned to vote in the runoff or 28%.
(7% of the total Runoff Vote)
Altogether these 5 voter models out of 81 made up 82% of the entire Republican Primary Runoff.
So what do we now know?
As I started off with, our goal at CES is to understand the value of every voter associated with your campaign. Just a little bit of well-placed knowledge and sound campaign wisdom can go a long way to minimize campaign cost, reduce wasted efforts, and reach the right voters.
Deuteronomy 30:11-14 NIV
11 Now what I am commanding you today is not too difficult for you or beyond your reach. 12 It is not up in heaven, so that you have to ask, “Who will ascend into heaven to get it and proclaim it to us so we may obey it?” 13 Nor is it beyond the sea, so that you have to ask, “Who will cross the sea to get it and proclaim it to us so we may obey it?” 14 No, the word is very near you; it is in your mouth and in your heart so you may obey it.