Last week we took a look at the habits of a voter who voted in 4 of the last 4 general elections. Simply, put we can be certain this type of voter will be showing up in the next election. We saw that approximately 80% went on to vote in the next three general elections. We also are running a study, not published yet, that shows the 4V voter made up between 48% and 59% of the total turnout in the next 3 Primaries. They also made up between 30% and 40% of the total general election turnout in the next 3 generals. Needless to say, the 4V voters is an absolute core voter and must be won over for support by your campaign. Without them, your campaign will be at a deficit
In this blog, we turn our attention to the opposite side of the voter perspective, the 4N voter. A 4N voters can have many faces, a new voter, a voter who just does not vote, or a voter who for one reason or another decided to bow out of the last 4 similar elections.
In this review, we are looking at Tarrant County 4N Voters (NNNN 2012, 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections)
In all, we identified approximately 575,000 voters in Tarrant County who did not vote in 2012, 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections.
We can quickly understand the full spectrum of the value of each voter model by comparing the turnout of a 4N voter to a 4V voter. In this 4N model, we see only 3% of all the voters showing up to vote in the next 3 general elections versus 78% of the 4V voter. That's 3 out of 100 versus about 80 out of 100. Given a campaign's limited resources, where would your money be best spent? Where are your time and talent best spent?
Ultimately, this is the story CES is passionate to tell. To understand the value of the voter and the value of your time, talent, and treasures and mix the two together to execute your campaign as efficient and possible. It's way more than just data, it's a story!