I don't know if you find data as exciting as we do at CES. If not, we hope you can understand our desire to find the "nuggets of gold" data can reveal. I was recently asked by one of the advocacy groups we work for about the voting habits of strong voters. For the purpose of this review, we are looking at what CES Calls a 4V Voter. A 4V Voter is a voter who has voted four of the last four similar elections. We built our models using 2012, 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections. Then we pushed the model forward against 2018, 2016 and 2014 General Elections. Here is what we see:
Review of Tarrant County 4V Voters (VVVV 2012, 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections)
In all, we identified approximately 168,000 voters in Tarrant County who voted in all four of 2012, 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections.
We believe this simply confirms the general consensus that Voters who vote, VOTE! Your campaign knows these voters are showing up, who they are and where they live, what is your plan to reach these voters?
I like to remind myself often we are creatures of habit. What we grew up believing, we do. What we have seen done, we do. What we feel is important, we do. What we believe we can affect, we do. If we can model proper civil discourse and develop a sense of responsibility to vote amongst those who don't, we will see surly see greater and more consistent voter participation amongst voters who don't vote as regularly.
In our next review we will look at the flip side, what do we expect from a 4N model? Voters who do not have any voting record. (NNNN - Did Not Vote 2012, 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections)
Hebrews 11:6 NIV
And without faith it is impossible to please God, because anyone who comes to him must believe that he exists and that he rewards those who earnestly seek him.
First congratulations to everyone involved in Texas HD 28. Win or lose, running for office is a very tough thing to do and regardless of the outcome, CES commends your efforts.
Now that the dust has settled we took a look at the precinct by precinct returns for this 2020 Special Election and compared them to the 2018 General election returns for the same district.
Here is the story we see:
Given the vote history in HD 28, there is no surprise it's still a Republican district. We believe with the current political environment leading into the 2020 General Elections, momentum is showing up on the Republican side in HD 28.
Congratulations again Representative-Elect Gates, may your days be blessed and filled with His Love!
Deuteronomy 28:1-14 NIV
If you fully obey the Lord your God and carefully follow all his commands I give you today, the Lord your God will set you high above all the nations on earth.
2 All these blessings will come on you and accompany you if you obey the Lord your God:
3 You will be blessed in the city and blessed in the country.
4 The fruit of your womb will be blessed, and the crops of your land and the young of your livestock—the calves of your herds and the lambs of your flocks.
5 Your basket and your kneading trough will be blessed.
6 You will be blessed when you come in and blessed when you go out.
7 The Lord will grant that the enemies who rise up against you will be defeated before you. They will come at you from one direction but flee from you in seven.
8 The Lord will send a blessing on your barns and on everything you put your hand to. The Lord your God will bless you in the land he is giving you.
9 The Lord will establish you as his holy people, as he promised you on oath, if you keep the commands of the Lord your God and walk in obedience to him.
10 Then all the peoples on earth will see that you are called by the name of the Lord, and they will fear you.
11 The Lord will grant you abundant prosperity—in the fruit of your womb, the young of your livestock and the crops of your ground—in the land he swore to your ancestors to give you.
12 The Lord will open the heavens, the storehouse of his bounty, to send rain on your land in season and to bless all the work of your hands. You will lend to many nations but will borrow from none.
13 The Lord will make you the head, not the tail. If you pay attention to the commands of the Lord your God that I give you this day and carefully follow them, you will always be at the top, never at the bottom.
14 Do not turn aside from any of the commands I give you today, to the right or to the left, following other gods and serving them.
Data needs can be complicated, confusing and expensive for candidates and their campaigns. After many years of campaigning at every level in Texas politics, this is understandable. There are so many competing factors, from needs, wants, emotions, and expectations pulling at every turn causing the confusion. Like anything, it's best to pull back and look at your campaign's goals and purpose. Ask yourself, what is campaign data and what does it do for your campaign?
This philosophy is not designed to win an election but is designed to guide your campaign to winning strategies. We don't believe campaigning is one size fits all but we do believe as it is written in Proverbs 1:20-23 that wisdom calls aloud, she raises her voice in the public square. Wisdom is available for all who are willing.
To start the process, we look at every voter in a district and score them based on three factors; Vote History, Vote Consistency, and Vote Recency. It might sound obvious but voters who have a consistent and recent voting history will rise to the top. But keep in mind we are looking at all voters. This allows us to stack the voters based on their scores. From here we are able to view and analyze costs and help your campaign make targeting decisions. At CES we have named these blocks of voters "Target Groups". Each Target Group has a historical propensity to vote for the election being modeled. Some can be more than 90% and others can be as low at 2% depending on the election.
At the end of the day, we are not trying to be fancy. CES wants to provide reliable data at a cost that makes sense to everyone and build a relationship with our customers on Trust, Confidence, and Commitment. It is a blessing and a joy we live by!
Grace and peace to you from our father and Lord Jesus Christ.
1/9/2020 0 Comments
Simply stated, it is a passion of mine. I love to find the story data tells, to find truths that are consistent no matter which angle we look at the data. A second passion of mine is politics. After returning from Germany in 2005 with the Army and with Lockheed Martin, I was blessed to be involved in almost every facet of Texas politics. I had the opportunity to work with many brilliant and passionate men and women in politics. I believe as is written in Proverbs 1 we are surrounded by His Wisdom and His Truths.
"Out in the open wisdom calls aloud, she raises her voice in the public square; on top of the wall she cries out, at the city gate she makes her speech:"
My goal has always been to find these truths for our customers so they can make the wisest decisions and develop sound strategies for their campaigns. Thank you for taking the time to read this message.
Many thanks and blessings from CES,