Over the first 7 days of early voting, our blog focused on Tarrant County. As we saw, Early Voting turnout has been good overall with Republican short of the 2016 numbers, but leading all the other primary turnout stats since 2012. Democrats, on the other hand, have been are turning out in big numbers compared to the primaries in our review.
We decided to turn our attention to the top 15 counties (by Reg Voter Total) to see how the numbers look beyond Tarrant County. We chose the top 15 counties simply because the Texas SOS makes it easy to get the information needed. We also chose the top 15 Counties because almost 50% of the Republican Primary voters and 75% of the Democrat Primary voters come from these counties.
Through day 8 of early voting Republicans increased turnout from 2016 to 2020 by 1,958 votes. Democrats, by comparison, increased primary turnout by 158,161 votes. Only 1.2% of the total turnout increase goes the Republicans and the other 98.8% goes the Democrats. As we stated in previous blogs we are not trying to predict outcome in November, but simply looking at the numbers as they are and trying to understand as much as we can with the hope the information and wisdom will help your campaign's strategic planning and organization moving into November.
We also took a look at the Republican to Democrat advantage change for these counties from 2016 to 2000. To illustrate how these numbers work, let's look at Harris and Cameron Counties in 2020. In Harris so for every 100 Democrat primary voters, there have been 92 Republican voters. In Cameron for every 100 Democrat voters, there are 22 Republican Voters.
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