“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair …, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way …”
The opening paragraph of Charles Dickens’ novel A Tale of Two Cities says it all, we are in a time of uncertainty. The Texas Primary Runoffs have been postponed and moved from 26 May until 14 July. Not only the runoffs, but Governor Abbott also gave local authorities the ability to move their 2 May Uniform Elections (Local/Municipal/Bond) to the 3 November General Elections.
How does a campaign plan, organize, and execute in this fluid environment? My partner Joel Starnes and I are committed to helping our clients navigate and run a successfully campaign. In these uncertain times we know it will take a measure of creative thinking and hard work.
With only 15 weeks until the newly scheduled Primary Runoff Date and 31 weeks until the Nov General Elections we are standing by ready to get your campaign moving. Shoot me an email and I will send you a free Texas Election Countdown worksheet.
God bless you and your campaign, we pray for many blessings and God's Amazing Grace to cover you, your family, and all your campaign team. Peace and Joy be with you!
Proverbs 3:5-6 (NIV)
5 Trust in the Lord with all your heart and lean not on your own understanding;
6 in all your ways submit to him, and he will make your paths straight.
Peace On Earth!
Congratulations, now that you are in a Primary Runoff what voters do you target? Our goal at CES is to understand the value of every voter associated with your campaign. We have developed a unique way to identify voter cost efficiencies. This unique focus allows our clients to understand the efficiency of their time and dollars spent at the front end of the campaign which allows for sharper, focused strategies and a more efficiently run campaign.
The million-dollar question, who is going to vote in the 2020 Republican Primary Runoff? In order to get the heart of this question, we looked back over the last four primaries and primary runoffs from 2018, 2016, 2014, and 2010. Here is what we see:
The first question we asked, what % of the Primary Runoff voters also voted in the Primary? As you can see from the following chart, an overwhelming majority of Primary Runoff voters also voted in the Primary. We believe this is to be expected, but it is extremely helpful to put real numbers to the expectation. Over the last four Republican Primary Runoff Elections, approximately 90% of the voters voted in the Primary.
Our next goal was to understand how these Primary Runoff voters broke down in their voter models? Interestingly, none of the models were very strong, but some were stronger than others. For example, 4Rs (RRRR) who voted in the primary, returned to vote in the Primary Runoff at a rate of 40% in 2018 and 34% in 2016. By comparison, 1Rs (RNNN) returned at 19% and 16% and, 0Rs (NNNN) first-time voters returned at 16% and 4%.
We also looked and 4Rs (RRRR) who did not vote in the Primary. They voted at a rate of around 6% and 4%. These strong Republican voters did not vote any better than the 0R (NNNN) voters who just voted in the Primary.
So what does all this mean in real numbers?
From our study:
RRRR (4R) had 7,714 voters vote in Rep Prim but only 3,078 returned to vote in the runoff or 40%.
(36% of the total Runoff vote)
RNNN (1R) had 8,580 voters vote in Rep Prim but only 1,589 returned to vote in the runoff or 19%.
(18% of the total Runoff Vote)
NNNN (0R) had 7,064 voters vote in Rep Prim but only 1,111 returned to vote in the runoff or 16%.
(13% of the total Ruoff Vote)
RRRN (3R) had 2,094 voters vote in Rep Prim but only 669 returned to vote in the runoff or 32%.
(8% of the total Runoff Vote)
RRNN (2R) had 2,090 voters vote in Rep Prim but only 578 returned to vote in the runoff or 28%.
(7% of the total Runoff Vote)
Altogether these 5 voter models out of 81 made up 82% of the entire Republican Primary Runoff.
So what do we now know?
As I started off with, our goal at CES is to understand the value of every voter associated with your campaign. Just a little bit of well-placed knowledge and sound campaign wisdom can go a long way to minimize campaign cost, reduce wasted efforts, and reach the right voters.
Deuteronomy 30:11-14 NIV
11 Now what I am commanding you today is not too difficult for you or beyond your reach. 12 It is not up in heaven, so that you have to ask, “Who will ascend into heaven to get it and proclaim it to us so we may obey it?” 13 Nor is it beyond the sea, so that you have to ask, “Who will cross the sea to get it and proclaim it to us so we may obey it?” 14 No, the word is very near you; it is in your mouth and in your heart so you may obey it.
Big kudos to the Tarrant County Elections Department for their awesome Live Voter Turnout Reporting Tool.
As you can see below, the tool give everyone the ability to see up-to-date, minute-by-minute turnout stats. How cool is that?
John 17:3 NIV
Now this is eternal life: that they know you, the only true God, and Jesus Christ, whom you have sent.
Tomorrow (Primary Election Day) is a big day! Campaigns have put all their time, talents, and treasure into this day. Many, if not a majority of the expected primary voters have already cast their ballot either in the 11-day window of early voting or by mail.
CES took a look back at the turnout over the last four Texas primaries in the top 15 counties; here is how Early Voting (EV) + Ballot-by-Mail (AB) compared to Election Day (ED) Voting.
As you can see from the above chart Early Vote and Ballot-by-Mail typically makes up somewhere between 45% and 55% of total turnout. It will be interesting to see tomorrow's turnout compares to the last four Texas primaries.
Your comment are always appreciated.
Let Peace and Joy be our reward!
John 15:17 NIV
This is my command: Love each other.