Over the first 7 days of early voting, our blog focused on Tarrant County. As we saw, Early Voting turnout has been good overall with Republican short of the 2016 numbers, but leading all the other primary turnout stats since 2012. Democrats, on the other hand, have been are turning out in big numbers compared to the primaries in our review.
We decided to turn our attention to the top 15 counties (by Reg Voter Total) to see how the numbers look beyond Tarrant County. We chose the top 15 counties simply because the Texas SOS makes it easy to get the information needed. We also chose the top 15 Counties because almost 50% of the Republican Primary voters and 75% of the Democrat Primary voters come from these counties.
Through day 8 of early voting Republicans increased turnout from 2016 to 2020 by 1,958 votes. Democrats, by comparison, increased primary turnout by 158,161 votes. Only 1.2% of the total turnout increase goes the Republicans and the other 98.8% goes the Democrats. As we stated in previous blogs we are not trying to predict outcome in November, but simply looking at the numbers as they are and trying to understand as much as we can with the hope the information and wisdom will help your campaign's strategic planning and organization moving into November.
We also took a look at the Republican to Democrat advantage change for these counties from 2016 to 2000. To illustrate how these numbers work, let's look at Harris and Cameron Counties in 2020. In Harris so for every 100 Democrat primary voters, there have been 92 Republican voters. In Cameron for every 100 Democrat voters, there are 22 Republican Voters.
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John 7:38 NIV
Whoever believes in me, as Scripture has said, rivers of living water will flow from within them.
After 6 days of early voting, both Republicans and Democrats are both having a great showing. Republicans had their 2nd best turnout since 2012 and the Democrats are having their best. Republicans still have the advantage over Democrats by 2,876 votes, but when compared to previous years this advantage has drastically decreased. As you can see from the following Tarrant County Turnout Through Day 6 Stats 2012 - 2020.
For a few days of voting last week, Republican turnout starting gaining on their advantage, but over the weekend, Democrat In-Person voting outpaced Republican In-Person voting. Looking back over the years since 2012, this is the first time through Day 6 of early voting the Democrats had the voting advantage. It will be interesting to see who rallies over the last five days of early voting.
CES would love to hear your comments on this topic or suggestions for future reviews. Thank you for taking your precious time to read our thoughts.
John 11:25-26 NIV
25 Jesus said to her, “I am the resurrection and the life. The one who believes in me will live, even though they die; 26 and whoever lives by believing in me will never die. Do you believe this?”
I fear at this point, I'm in danger of repeating myself over the next 9 days of early voting; many times. Republicans still have the turnout advantage over the Democrats. But with this, the Democrats are outperforming their previous years in this series.
As a reminder, in this blog series, we are measuring turnout in Tarrant County, looking back and comparing Republican and Democrat daily turnout figures against turnout in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 Primaries.
Republicans had 4,289 votes on Day 3 of early voting. This is the second-best Day 3 turnout since 2012, with 2016 being the best at about 200 votes more. Democrats, on the other hand, had 3,171 votes. Although significantly less, this was by far the best Day 3 turnout for the Democrats. The next best was in 2016 with 1,934 votes.
Turning our attention to the cumulative In-Person and By-Mail votes for all three days Republicans sit at 15,683 to the Democrats 13,236. This gives the Republicans an advantage factor of 1.18, which is historically the smallest advantage the Republicans have had since 2012 primary.
A lot can happen in the next 8 days, we know who has voted and who has not. Will the Republicans rally and turn their historical advantage back around or will we see the Democrats hold on to their increasing share of the Tarrant County turnout?
James 1:12 NIV
Blessed is the one who perseveres under trial because, having stood the test, that person will receive the crown of life that the Lord has promised to those who love him.
Continuing on with the same focus as yesterday's blog What does "Day One" look like?, we are going to measure turnout in Tarrant County, looking back and comparing Republican and Democrat daily turnout figures against turnout in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 Primaries. Day One showed a slight edge overall for the Democrats. Let's see what day two brings us.
Starting with the Republicans, there were 4,393 votes yesterday; 4,329 (98.5%) In-Person and 64 (1.5%) By-Mail. In contrast, the Democrats had 3,287 votes; 2,790 (85%) In-Person and 497 (15%) By-Mail.
Compared to the previous elections being measured, yesterday's "Day Two" was a fairly good day for both Republicans and Democrats. In-Person Republican voters had their second-best showing slightly behind 2016 with 4,579 voters. Democrat voters had their best In-Person showing with 2,790 voters. This is more than 500 votes better than in 2016.
Regarding the By-Mail vote, Democrat Voters had a lead over Republicans with a 7.77 advantage yesterday and a 1.49 advantage over both days.
Overall after Day Two, Republican voters gained back the lead with a total of 10,811 votes to 9,793 Democrat votes. Still, even with the current lead, Republicans had their third-best showing in the series and Democrats had their best by over 2,000 votes.
It's only been two days, nine more to go! I still believe we see Democrat-leaning favor going into the Nov Gen. It's still early, so I will patiently wait to see where the lot falls over the next nine days.
As a friendly reminder, we are not predicting outcome here, but simply looking at the story the numbers tell. We would love to hear your fun nuggets of data discovery if you would like to share it with us. Also, we would love your kind comments and would greatly appreciate your feedback.
John 13:34 NIV
“A new command I give you:
Love one another. As I have loved you, so you must love one another.
Peace and Joy be yours in abundance!
We've decided to narrow the focus of this blog series for the sake of simplicity and ease of discussion. Over the eleven days of early voting, we are going to measure turnout in Tarrant County, looking back and comparing Republican and Democrat daily turnout figures against turnout in 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 Primaries. I am very excited to see what story emerges and how we can use the wisdom derived from the story to give our clients strategic insight moving on into November.
Let's start with Republican Turnout for Day 1. There were a total of 6,418 voters. 3,844 In-Person and 2,574 By-Mail. By contrast, there were a total of 6,506 voters in the Democrat Primary. 3,068 In-Person and 3,438 By-Mail. As a percentage of the total vote both Republican and Democrat turnout are neck and neck with Democrats having a slight advantage.
Turning our attention now, to the past 4 Primary, I see a trend where the Democrats have been increasing their share of the total vote in the primary, year after year. I show the Republicans had outvoted Democrats 2.55 to 1 in 2012. This advantage has slipped to 1.19 to 1 in 2018. Now the advantage leans to the Democrats for the first time in this series by 1.01 to 1 in 2020.
Also, worth noting is the % of Total Reg Voters. Republicans had their smallest showing for "Day 1" at 0.56%. With the highest being 0.77% in 2016. Democrats, on the other hand, had their largest at 0.56% with their lowest in 2012 at 0.23%.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out over the next few days. Will the Republicans gain their historical advantage or are we still seeing the slow bleed of a purple county to blue? I guess we will find out soon! Please make note we are not predicting outcome here, we are simply looking at what story the numbers tell us.
Contact us if you would like a detailed study of your area or district. We would be glad to help you develop your strategy and understand the complex voter habits you will be facing.
Let Wisdom be your guide and Peace be with you!
John 6:29 NIV - Jesus answered, “The work of God is this: to believe in the one he has sent.”
It's always exciting when early voting kicks off. We've all spent the last few months trying to figure out, as best we can, what is going to actually happen. There are so many data points to choose from. CES is going to take a look at Daily Early Voting Turnout and see how it measures up to previous primary elections.
Looking back at elections from 2008 through 2018 Republican turnout is about 10% in most years and almost 20% in 2016 with Trump on the head of the ticket. Democrats range from 4% to 10% turnout typically, with 2008 being 22.5% with Obama on the head of the ticket.
With 11 days of early voting in front of us, let's see how things progress.
Do you have a campaign you would like CES to track and analyze? Contact us today and let's see what exciting data nuggets we can discover.
It's always exciting when new voters show up. The pundits, rightfully so, start to categorize them in ideological buckets. The Trump Effect, The Obama Wave, The Tea-Party Movement are all examples of this. But what does this all mean in forecasting the next elections? Where do these voters go and how much weight do they hold over the elections to follow?
As a point of reference, we saw in our blog "Voters Who Vote, VOTE!" that almost 80% of the 4V voter voted in all of the next three General Elections and we also saw in our blog "See the new voters, where are they going?" that only 3% of the 4N voter voted in all of the next three General Elections. That's a huge disparity.
In this blog, let's turn this same attention to the 1V Voter who voted for the first time in the most recent general election. In this review, we are looking at Tarrant County 1V Voters who voted only in 2012 and not in 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections.
In all, we identified approximately 122,000 voters in Tarrant County who fall into this voter model. Here is what we see:
In the long run, we see a loss of only 21% not participating in any of the next 3 General Elections. But at the same time only 33% coming back to vote in all 3 of the next General Elections. This type of voter has value but given a campaign's limited resources we must be wise to the approach before sending in major campaign resources. Try to think of the cost of each campaign activity, and if the cost makes sense for your budget, then do it!
For example, if you wanted to send a piece of mail to all 122,000 voters in this category at a cost of $1.00. That's simply $122,000 for this one action. Now, this is obviously a large population, but the same is still true at any level of campaigning, what is the value and what is the expected outcome? If your campaign can justify the cost then go for it. But if you need to narrow your budget and make every dollar spent maximize it affects then understanding the story of your data is the best way to go.
Let Wisdom be your guide!
Out in the open wisdom calls aloud, she raises her voice in the public square
Last week we took a look at the habits of a voter who voted in 4 of the last 4 general elections. Simply, put we can be certain this type of voter will be showing up in the next election. We saw that approximately 80% went on to vote in the next three general elections. We also are running a study, not published yet, that shows the 4V voter made up between 48% and 59% of the total turnout in the next 3 Primaries. They also made up between 30% and 40% of the total general election turnout in the next 3 generals. Needless to say, the 4V voters is an absolute core voter and must be won over for support by your campaign. Without them, your campaign will be at a deficit
In this blog, we turn our attention to the opposite side of the voter perspective, the 4N voter. A 4N voters can have many faces, a new voter, a voter who just does not vote, or a voter who for one reason or another decided to bow out of the last 4 similar elections.
In this review, we are looking at Tarrant County 4N Voters (NNNN 2012, 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections)
In all, we identified approximately 575,000 voters in Tarrant County who did not vote in 2012, 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections.
We can quickly understand the full spectrum of the value of each voter model by comparing the turnout of a 4N voter to a 4V voter. In this 4N model, we see only 3% of all the voters showing up to vote in the next 3 general elections versus 78% of the 4V voter. That's 3 out of 100 versus about 80 out of 100. Given a campaign's limited resources, where would your money be best spent? Where are your time and talent best spent?
Ultimately, this is the story CES is passionate to tell. To understand the value of the voter and the value of your time, talent, and treasures and mix the two together to execute your campaign as efficient and possible. It's way more than just data, it's a story!
I don't know if you find data as exciting as we do at CES. If not, we hope you can understand our desire to find the "nuggets of gold" data can reveal. I was recently asked by one of the advocacy groups we work for about the voting habits of strong voters. For the purpose of this review, we are looking at what CES Calls a 4V Voter. A 4V Voter is a voter who has voted four of the last four similar elections. We built our models using 2012, 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections. Then we pushed the model forward against 2018, 2016 and 2014 General Elections. Here is what we see:
Review of Tarrant County 4V Voters (VVVV 2012, 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections)
In all, we identified approximately 168,000 voters in Tarrant County who voted in all four of 2012, 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections.
We believe this simply confirms the general consensus that Voters who vote, VOTE! Your campaign knows these voters are showing up, who they are and where they live, what is your plan to reach these voters?
I like to remind myself often we are creatures of habit. What we grew up believing, we do. What we have seen done, we do. What we feel is important, we do. What we believe we can affect, we do. If we can model proper civil discourse and develop a sense of responsibility to vote amongst those who don't, we will see surly see greater and more consistent voter participation amongst voters who don't vote as regularly.
In our next review we will look at the flip side, what do we expect from a 4N model? Voters who do not have any voting record. (NNNN - Did Not Vote 2012, 2010, 2008, and 2006 General Elections)
Hebrews 11:6 NIV
And without faith it is impossible to please God, because anyone who comes to him must believe that he exists and that he rewards those who earnestly seek him.